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JSX-Portfolio Update-as of Friday 2nd March

ANTM CLOSE NEAR ALL TIME HIGH.... HUGE SUPPORT AT 9500 and 9550
INCO BREAK ALL TIME HIGH, NICKEL PRICE ALL TIME HIGH!!!!!



Nickel Portfolio, ANTM (ANTAM, aneka tambang) & INCO
ANTM-Aneka Tambang Indonesia.
Bought 3 lots @RP. 7700/share. 1 Lot =500 shares.
-Current price 9450/share-
GAIN -1750/share- 23% as of Friday 2nd March
Antam is mining Ferronickel and Gold.
Conservative target price of 13000 by end 07, expect 15000+++ by end of year.
Profit as of Q3 2006 is 880billion rupiah, and Full year unauditted profit of 1.56Trilion rupiah.
TO BE NOTED. that the last quarter (Q4 07), on the back of strong nickel price the profit is nearly 700billion rupiah. compare to only 880 billion for the whole 3 other quarter.
Taking that the price of nickel and GOLD has just gone up since end of 2006,.. while nickel spot price was flying high and its 3 months future has hit USD 40k/metric tonnes.
Assuming that Nickel price until mid year will stay as high as Q4 2007 ONLY... ANTM half year profit can get to 700billion*2 =1.4 billion( 3months Future is 40k/metric tonnes). Talking about conservative estimation that there is no production increase until end of year.... then by end 2007 can get to AT LEAST 2.8TRILLION rupiah OR
80% HIGHER...
NB: Ferronickel production will up by at least 20% as FENI III will start its full production and deliver in 2007.
-ANTAM power generation is from OIL generator,which mean that the production cost will relate very closely to the price of oil.
However, Doubling profit on 2007 full year is NOT IMPOSSIBLE!!!!!
May stock split if price get to 10.000/share



INCO-International Nickel Indonesia. BOUGHT 1 lot @34000/share.
-currently price 39100/share-
GAIN of 15% up to date
Target price 60.000/share conservative. expect 80k-100k-may do stock split.
expect follow antm result if not better as its pure NICKEL player in the market.
Share price touched 44000/share and for no strong reason fall back to 39000 now.
Power generation is from water dam.. Expect production to pick up.
Wary over El-nino dry season May 07.

Coziron (CZR.ax) update-1

Posted: Mon Feb 12, 2007 1:56 am Post subject: Coziron Resources Limited(CZR)

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Listing on 29th Aug 07
Mining in Various sites in Indonesia

ONLY 25.8million shares on issue. at current SP,
the market cap is only 17 million.
Still holding.... very good prospectus... i will patiently wait till this fruitful. Cant belive this company is valued only 17million....
Time will tell....

A deal with CKI ( major iron ore importer from China, hold 5% CZR)
Highly prospective projects
Project:

Rawang gadang Iron ore
approx 150k tons of iron ore, 64-89.95% content of Fe
Expect early production for company cashflow
Analytical test results expected soon

Kunyit Iron ore

expect up to 66.30% iron ore content
Commence drilling (7th Feb 07 announcement)
Potential low cost deposit for short to medium term period
Expecting start production by April 07; pending Environment department approval.
Announcement UPDATE: Hit 32m Hematite iron ore high grade , huge iron ore reserve...

Lubuk rawang Gadang Lead Zinc\
HIstoric sampling of 30.6% zn, 0.23% Pb.
and, 8%Zn, 5.5%Pb, 312g/t ag 1.84g/t Au
Pending mining licence, expect mid March, no work yet done

Inderapura Coal project
JV with Grange resource Ltd to spend up to 1million dollar for next 18 months to earn 50% shares( due dilligence and test work)

Singkarak Copper and Gold MOU with PT. Intan Borneo
Au Samples peaked at 7.33g/t, Cu up to 22% (very high cu content)

the share price quadruple since the Listing.
Latest closing 68c

Gud news keep coming, but share priced somewhat keep going south... and 17million dollars for all those project!!!!!!!!!!!!,... I guess i'll wait for the drilling application to be approved by mid March to mid April 07 ..... Time will valuate this stock to its fair falue....
as of only 25million shares on issue, this can go higher in a blip on eye...

Graph and Posting are copied from post at Crazy Jim Smith Forum.

Market as of early March 07

Late february, shanghai's flu bring dow jones to its knee.... and on friday closing,.. dow jones closed very close to its week low.
Nobody can tell what will happen to the portfolio by next monday...
A good bargain of small cap at ASX may be interesting, as off i hope to get a bargain on WMT and RBM that still have a huge upside potential. ah, I kept telling myself to remain humble that getting out of Wednesday with green portfolio when ASX closed at -156,... i should not be greedy or proud....
Yes, opportunity will not come twice, BUT DISSASTER WILL NOT COME ONCE ONLY...!!!!

Hope a better strategic movement on Monday later.

MFIN

7Feb 07
well, i did talk on MFIN yesterday with you and yes, i do agree that MFIN has a very gud numbers and potential growth for the long run.
The only thing that concerns me is that.
1. Last week... the largest buy for MFIN shares is From panin securities which is
BUY 480 million
SeLL 250 milliion
giving it a net buy of panin 200million++ value.
While the largest sales if from AK, with net sell of 550million++
While dwarfting the rest of other purchases from the other securities which here i assume to be ignorable.

Yesterday, i saw a very gud run on MFIN on the back of 1.0billion++ rupiah of sales. an average price of 158 and 161, together transaction at approx 5000 lots each.

Question arisen again, Who is buying? guess..!! Panin securities whack up 700million++ of the buying LOTS... about 70-75% of buying in Panin..
Well, assumption...
Someone at Panin Wants MFIN SOO badly!! that i guess, a person must hold about 500million++ of MFIN collecting within last 5-6working days. (net buy panin in 5working day is 1.0billion++)

and the rest? seems that only the big boss in panin is interested in MFIN and i'm yet to see the rest.

Fundamentally for investment? Very very gud, gud management, low cost , efficient operation, simple book presentation....and gud credit outlook

Techinically? ahh, not until i found others who's interested in it... ha3x.. if its a HUGE VOLUME yesterday.. how come until now at 12 noon, NO TRANSACTION AT ALL????????? weird isnt it???????

ha3x...

TBLA..

here's my view on TBLA as posted on yahoogroups awhile ago, ...

9/2/07
dari tadi pagi break 345 sekarang sekitar pukul 3 siang,
Harga Volume Freq
360 8 2
355 116782 414
350 54900 256
345 68000 225
340 22700 99

kemarin sudah banyak yang beli di 340, hari ini resistance 340-345 di jebol dan ketemu resistance 360
dari siang, udah nga kuat naik ke 360. ada volume gap di 350 yang perlahan lahan mulai di isi sejak pembukaan sesi ke-2
kelihatan kalau dari average volume/ freq itu banyak yang LONG di 345 dan banyak trader masuk di 350 (bargain hunter).
AI yang kemarin beli banyak juga mulai partially jualan di 350-355, average 351.4/share

Dulu embah pernah bilang, kalau orang2 pikir harganya akan naik.. justru harga akan turun...
Jual pada saat orang orang sedang rakus/greedy, dan beli pada saat orang ragu.
sory kalo salah quote ya mbah... ha3x,,,

Dalam 1 minggu harga sudah naik dari 300 ke 350-355, sekitar 15%++ dalam satu minggu, ini tidak iikuti oleh
kenaikan harga saham palm oil lain, seperti AALI, Lsip dan UNSP (justru yg lain turun).
padahal harga cpo slightly up again....
apakah orang2 sudah mulai rakus dan makan terus? atau ini saham akan terus naik menembus langit... hanya tuhan yang tahu.

saya agak ragu dengan short term saat ini,but long term.. TBLA sangat menjanjikan.

_Disclaimer on ya-

Ini bukan recomendasi, do your own homework.

8/02/07

saya beli saham ini sewaktu 305, target price 450 sampai Q4 07. lalu perlahan2 jatuh ke 290,.. santai minum kopi saja.. ha3x
bankland masih ada 25ribu hektar yang masih unplanted, yang ditanami baru 30rb hektar.
dari 30ribu itu, yang productive baru 15ribu, dan ada sekitar 6000-7500 hectar lagi yang akan masuk maturity akhir tahun ini sampai awal tahun depan.
jadi pertumbuhan production CPO minimal akan naik 40-50% dari production.
Belum lagi fulus alias cash mereka yang masih healthy sekali, dan ada bocoran kemaren kalau TBLA itu ada rencana expansi yang sangat agressive.
satu lagi itu harga CPO yang di prediksi bisa naik further 10-15% tahun ini on conservative estimation.

saya dengar pajak export cpo itu di-naikkan pemerintah tahun ini, tetapi pajak import CPO di india turun dari 70 menjadi 60%. lalu harga jual CPO export juga
dinaikkan oleh pemerintah hari ini.
Secara konservatif sich, melihat production growth cpo saja... target 450 itu menurut saya hanya tinggal menunggu waktu saja.. kalau rumor guthrie menawarkan 700, eh..
aneh juga sich, karena guthrie plantation( perkumpulan guthrie) sekarang sudah di merge sama simedarby plantation and Golden hope into Synergy drive (saham synergy sudah di trading di KLSE/bursa malaysia.).. tapi kalau berani ditawar 700.... hehehe, mungkin target price saya perlu saya revisi ke 600 kali ya dalam 3-4semester mendatang.
Bagaimana pak oentoeng? dan pendapat saudara sekalian?
DJ Indonesia Ups CPO Base Price $29 To $487/Ton, RBD Olein +$64



JAKARTA (Dow Jones)--Indonesia has raised its base price for exports of crude palm oil by $29 to $487 a metric ton, in line with higher global market prices for palm oil, a trade ministry official said Thursday.

The base price for refined, bleached and deodorized palm olein has been raised by $64 to $552/ton.

The base export prices for RBD palm oil and crude palm olein have both been raised by $24 to $541/ton, while palm kernel oil was raised by $12 to $94/ton, the official said.

The new base prices will be in effect from Feb. 10 to March 9.

Base prices are used to calculate tax paid on palm oil exports.

Crude palm oil is subject to a 1.5% export tax calculated from the base price, while other palm oil derivative products are subject to a 0.3% export tax. Palm kernel oil is subject to a 3% export tax.

Indonesia is the world's second-biggest exporter and producer of palm oil after Malaysia.