MFIN

7Feb 07
well, i did talk on MFIN yesterday with you and yes, i do agree that MFIN has a very gud numbers and potential growth for the long run.
The only thing that concerns me is that.
1. Last week... the largest buy for MFIN shares is From panin securities which is
BUY 480 million
SeLL 250 milliion
giving it a net buy of panin 200million++ value.
While the largest sales if from AK, with net sell of 550million++
While dwarfting the rest of other purchases from the other securities which here i assume to be ignorable.

Yesterday, i saw a very gud run on MFIN on the back of 1.0billion++ rupiah of sales. an average price of 158 and 161, together transaction at approx 5000 lots each.

Question arisen again, Who is buying? guess..!! Panin securities whack up 700million++ of the buying LOTS... about 70-75% of buying in Panin..
Well, assumption...
Someone at Panin Wants MFIN SOO badly!! that i guess, a person must hold about 500million++ of MFIN collecting within last 5-6working days. (net buy panin in 5working day is 1.0billion++)

and the rest? seems that only the big boss in panin is interested in MFIN and i'm yet to see the rest.

Fundamentally for investment? Very very gud, gud management, low cost , efficient operation, simple book presentation....and gud credit outlook

Techinically? ahh, not until i found others who's interested in it... ha3x.. if its a HUGE VOLUME yesterday.. how come until now at 12 noon, NO TRANSACTION AT ALL????????? weird isnt it???????

ha3x...

TBLA..

here's my view on TBLA as posted on yahoogroups awhile ago, ...

9/2/07
dari tadi pagi break 345 sekarang sekitar pukul 3 siang,
Harga Volume Freq
360 8 2
355 116782 414
350 54900 256
345 68000 225
340 22700 99

kemarin sudah banyak yang beli di 340, hari ini resistance 340-345 di jebol dan ketemu resistance 360
dari siang, udah nga kuat naik ke 360. ada volume gap di 350 yang perlahan lahan mulai di isi sejak pembukaan sesi ke-2
kelihatan kalau dari average volume/ freq itu banyak yang LONG di 345 dan banyak trader masuk di 350 (bargain hunter).
AI yang kemarin beli banyak juga mulai partially jualan di 350-355, average 351.4/share

Dulu embah pernah bilang, kalau orang2 pikir harganya akan naik.. justru harga akan turun...
Jual pada saat orang orang sedang rakus/greedy, dan beli pada saat orang ragu.
sory kalo salah quote ya mbah... ha3x,,,

Dalam 1 minggu harga sudah naik dari 300 ke 350-355, sekitar 15%++ dalam satu minggu, ini tidak iikuti oleh
kenaikan harga saham palm oil lain, seperti AALI, Lsip dan UNSP (justru yg lain turun).
padahal harga cpo slightly up again....
apakah orang2 sudah mulai rakus dan makan terus? atau ini saham akan terus naik menembus langit... hanya tuhan yang tahu.

saya agak ragu dengan short term saat ini,but long term.. TBLA sangat menjanjikan.

_Disclaimer on ya-

Ini bukan recomendasi, do your own homework.

8/02/07

saya beli saham ini sewaktu 305, target price 450 sampai Q4 07. lalu perlahan2 jatuh ke 290,.. santai minum kopi saja.. ha3x
bankland masih ada 25ribu hektar yang masih unplanted, yang ditanami baru 30rb hektar.
dari 30ribu itu, yang productive baru 15ribu, dan ada sekitar 6000-7500 hectar lagi yang akan masuk maturity akhir tahun ini sampai awal tahun depan.
jadi pertumbuhan production CPO minimal akan naik 40-50% dari production.
Belum lagi fulus alias cash mereka yang masih healthy sekali, dan ada bocoran kemaren kalau TBLA itu ada rencana expansi yang sangat agressive.
satu lagi itu harga CPO yang di prediksi bisa naik further 10-15% tahun ini on conservative estimation.

saya dengar pajak export cpo itu di-naikkan pemerintah tahun ini, tetapi pajak import CPO di india turun dari 70 menjadi 60%. lalu harga jual CPO export juga
dinaikkan oleh pemerintah hari ini.
Secara konservatif sich, melihat production growth cpo saja... target 450 itu menurut saya hanya tinggal menunggu waktu saja.. kalau rumor guthrie menawarkan 700, eh..
aneh juga sich, karena guthrie plantation( perkumpulan guthrie) sekarang sudah di merge sama simedarby plantation and Golden hope into Synergy drive (saham synergy sudah di trading di KLSE/bursa malaysia.).. tapi kalau berani ditawar 700.... hehehe, mungkin target price saya perlu saya revisi ke 600 kali ya dalam 3-4semester mendatang.
Bagaimana pak oentoeng? dan pendapat saudara sekalian?
DJ Indonesia Ups CPO Base Price $29 To $487/Ton, RBD Olein +$64



JAKARTA (Dow Jones)--Indonesia has raised its base price for exports of crude palm oil by $29 to $487 a metric ton, in line with higher global market prices for palm oil, a trade ministry official said Thursday.

The base price for refined, bleached and deodorized palm olein has been raised by $64 to $552/ton.

The base export prices for RBD palm oil and crude palm olein have both been raised by $24 to $541/ton, while palm kernel oil was raised by $12 to $94/ton, the official said.

The new base prices will be in effect from Feb. 10 to March 9.

Base prices are used to calculate tax paid on palm oil exports.

Crude palm oil is subject to a 1.5% export tax calculated from the base price, while other palm oil derivative products are subject to a 0.3% export tax. Palm kernel oil is subject to a 3% export tax.

Indonesia is the world's second-biggest exporter and producer of palm oil after Malaysia.

PMT Industries BHD

Ah.. yesterday was my last day at PMT, lots of happy memory there.. a fun place to work.!!
wHEN IT was serious, everyone is serious to get the job done... stay up late, even until early morning....
its a non sleeping standing over 12hours++ kinda work. but when its relax.. ha3x, everyone is hibernating.
Full of the Crazy sex Lew , the overly wanted to look n sound good Hor,.. always laughing Jack and The quiet,...yahoo chatter new engineer Desmond.
The best part is my bos, MR.Goh, ha3x... i have lots of respect to him!! he even suggested a stock at ASX for me !! what an experience.
PMT has been a roller coaster, enjoyable work up until now...!! i do enjoy it very much..
Mr.Goh gave me an excellent review on the final paper. attached below


Lew,... a very sick sick guy.. his fave word ---> FUck you!! fuck you!! you ...!! dont do that ok!! Fuck you!! ha3x.. anyhow.. a very gud fella to bull-crapping to around...
yo pal.. be gud then.. all the best for you and your future career as Porn video actor, Porn and view photographing and Be rich from your Prostitute Brothel .. hehehe

Then its KT aka. Hoa.. a MR. P&C (private and confidential), he protect the family from my ever hungry information to know more.. hahaha,.. lucky PMT to have... or i'll have know all the secrets.. hehe.. he's the "key-keeper".. hohoho... :p

Then Stanley, the youngest Senior Technician... very fun... amoi looker guy... fuck man, you've got a gf already.. !! settle down.. bwkakaka... (kidz.. dont read my post on this one.. its all about a world of fuck up people in a fuck up life"_)

Portfolio

Recently, i've been trying to read as much as i can. I used to watch alot of video, movies and anime. but lately, i dont know why they felt so boring as if i have no time to watch all those things and i have gotten so busy with my life.
Its good to find a focus back into life. Anyhow, this Posting is going to be about my portfolio that i've collected within the last few weeks.
And, oh, there's someone posting on Yahoo group, saying a BUY rating on INDF, indofood, the largest instant noodle corporation in the world. Why? because Jakarta and many parts of indonesia is showered with heavy rains and flood. so, logicaly speaking, everyone must eat a pack of instant noodle everyday, especially they who's from a lower income family... ha3x.. its really simple and stupid, and well, it logically works perfectly...

JSX (Jakarta Stock Xchange)

1. TBLA (Tunas Baru Lampung)>> BUY @ 305 (70 lot), a palm oil company that "return to basic", in which they will start focusing in pumping up their production of CPO products. Chose over AALI, LSIP and UNSP because its upsize potential up to 450 rupiah. an upsize with potential growth of 50%++ in a year or two. Currently, the plants is about 7 years old and not mature yet. by 2008 and 2009,.. production can be doubled or tripled. Cant wait to see it fly by Q3 and Q4 of 07

2. INCO >> BUY @34200 (1 lot), I bought it when the price is quite high, while now its sliding, ... the target price is 45000/share. Xstrata's worker has come to agreement with the worker, pushing the price downward. however, 2months ago, stock of nickel is around 6000 metric tonnes, by now its only 3390 tonnes, a decline of an almost half. when they come back to work, there might not be any major stock decline anymore, but bear in mind, the supply is so limited so that they can only keep the stock at that 3k++ level, any major problem with supply will shake the ground hard. while prices have yet to move upward much. If the price of nickel can stay at 30-40k/metric tonne, i will see it fly over 50k by third quarter this year.

3. ANTM,... BUY@7700 (4 lots), target price of 13k by Q4 07. Pumping up the production of nickel.

4. RALS,... BUY@860(35lot), at the back of lower inflation, expecting lower interest rate and higher purchasing power and higher retail sales. target 1200/share by Q4 2007

5. ALMI, .. BUY@ (85lot). Low PE ratio, high deviden, low volatility and good profit growth

ASX (australia Stock X)

1. WMT (western metals), Buy @ 93c and 91c (45000 shares), target price 2Dollars/share. This company has Uranium, huge tenament, good results, experienced director and managers. good relationship with shareholders in information presentation. Currently focusing itself in Uranium mining in Tanzania, high grade henry anomaly.
activity in US with lynx, peru in copper mining and tins.

2. CZR (Coziron), BUY 3000 shares, 75c mining resources in various sites in Indonesia, good management, great potential growth