JSX-12March-update2-nickel Portfolio

Inco Financial report has been publish last week on Thursday. The share price has rallied from 38k/share to as high as 46500. Currently trading at around 45k++ bound range.
Strong Deviden is expected about 40-50c USD... about 3500-4500/share or about 8-10% of the share price.
Profit of inco nearly doubles at the back of high nickel price. the average contract is only about 25k USD/metric tonnes making it possible to double the profit again in 2007. Unfortunately that the production falls slightly YOY basis. By end of year, i will expect the target pric eto break 70-80k/share higher than 53k-58k of what most big analysts predict.

As What I have predicted as well, that this is the third time that ANTM tries to break 9500 psychological resistance. if it breaks, it will be on the way to break round number 10000/share resistance. On thursday, it breaks 9500 resistance on STRONG SUPPORT AT 9500 AND 9550.
Mr. Sudeswanto at Obrolan bandar and Saham forum has also been campaigning on collecting ANTM! nobody is listening I think.... Ah well, Today it breaks 10000 and close at its all time high of 10150 up almost 6%, an impressive upsize for the Blue chip as big as ANTM.
Is it too late to buy? I do not think so. With production from FENI III will increase total production by at least 30%, ANTM can easily go to 15000 rupiah/share by end of year.
Gud luck investing everyone .. !!!!

Currently Holding INCo at 34000, a gain of 33% on portfolio
Currently holding ANTM at 7700, a gain of 32% on Portfolio.

Holding the nickel portfolio for about 2-3months for now. Satisfying return for Big caps share !, the best thing is that to survive market down treding last week with Green Portfolio.
Green is GOOd, RED IS best!!

Be Humble.. and Keep investing in Yourself

Below are extracted from New Paper online. Human being are easily get
carried away. This will serve to remind us to adopt cut loss
discipline, and gamble within our limit.

Sources -> http://newpaper. asia1.com. sg/news/story/ 0,4136,124646, 00.html?

************ ********* ********* *******
EVEN before he graduated from an Australian university, this Singapore
engineering student earned $80,000 in a month.

Mr Chan (we are not giving his full name to protect his identity) did
not have a job.

The 27-year-old was betting on the Singapore stock market, and managed
to pick the shares whose prices rocketed in the recent bull run.

Buoyed by the success, his father was convinced that his only son had
a Midas touch. So, the 67-year-old former sailor, who runs a shop
selling women's clothes in Chinatown, gave his son $300,000 - his
whole life savings - to invest in shares.

That was a couple of months ago.

Today, Mr Chan has not only lost all his father's savings, he has
incurred another $320,000 in trading losses.

When the global market went through a sudden meltdown last week, so
did his luck and fortune.

EVERYTHING BOMBED

In just two days, Mr Chan chalked up a few hundred thousand dollars in
losses when The Straits Times Index (STI) dived by 75.9 points on 27
Feb and another 127.87 points (the steepest dive in 20 years) on 28 Feb.

He said: 'Everything bombed in just 48 hours. My life, my future...
and now, even my parents could lose their home.'

In three short months of trading, Mr Chan has lost about $700,000.

Although the market has regained some of its earlier losses this week,
the recovery means little to him.

Mr Chan was dabbling in high-risk contra trading, where you buy and
sell the same shares within three days, putting up no money and
earning the profits when share prices go up. But investors can lose
money when the stock market is having a downturn, and they will have
to pay the losses to their stockbrokers within days.

Mr Chan bought heavily into popular counters such as DBS, UOB,
Capitaland and even China stocks such as Longcheer Holdings, and hoped
to sell them for a gain before the usual deadline.

But as the market dipped suddenly and he could not afford to pay and
keep all the shares, he had to make up for all the losses he incurred
during his trading period.

Even after exhausting his previous winnings, his father's savings, and
loans from friends, he still owes two of his remisiers more than $200,000.

To add to his woes, his girlfriend of eight years has also walked out
on him, disappointed by how his gambling had cost him dearly.

Most of his friends are also avoiding his calls or finding excuses not
to meet him. Word has gone around that he is desperate for money
because he has already borrowed some $70,000 from 20 of his friends.

Mr Chan said: 'No one can blame them for avoiding me. Thankfully, I
still have my parents on my side, otherwise I'd probably have gone
insane.'

To help him, his father is prepared to move to a smaller home if
needed. While the family is scrambling to raise the money to clear the
debt, Mr Chan admitted he had entertained thoughts of filing for
bankruptcy.

He said: 'I was told if I did that, it'd be tough for me to find a
decent job.'

During the interview with The New Paper on Sunday, Mr Chan became
rather agitated and restless when he related his problems. 'Look, it's
fine if it's just me, but I've got to think of my parents,' he said.

This is a far cry from October last year when he was preparing for his
final-year examination in Perth.

At a group study session, one of his Singaporean classmates checked on
his own trading account and shouted happily when he made a few
thousand dollars.

Mr Chan recalled: 'I was hooked from the minute he started talking
about how easy it was to make a profit.

''He encouraged me to do likewise and even suggested that I start off
with contra trading since I didn't have much cash.'

Mr Chan then contacted a cousin, who had an online trading account in
Singapore, and asked him to buy some shares he selected.

He said: 'I made $23,000 by the end of the first week and my friends
started calling me Prince Midas.

'I guess I sort of got carried away when I made another killing of
about $30,000. I got bolder and by the time I stopped because of the
exams, I was richer by $80,000.'

Mr Chan returned to Singapore in early December after his examinations
and shared the news with his father and 58-year-old mother. They were
impressed with his 'windfall'.

Still, he insisted that it was not the 'easy cash' but boredom that
got him trading again.

He said: 'I wanted to take a break for a couple of months before
looking for a job, so I was idling during the day when my parents and
my girlfriend were at work. 'I was surfing the Internet when I decided
to check out the SGX homepage. I randomly picked a few companies and
the chart pattern I saw was definitely encouraging. '

He started to monitor the shares, and role-played as if he had bought
heavily into them.

When the STI closed on the first day, he had made an imaginary
$100,000; on the second day, it was another $110,000 'win'.

'I was, like, geez! If only I had dealt in real money. Then it
occurred to me, maybe this is my calling. If I were good, I could
afford to let my parents retire comfortably, have a lavish wedding,
and upgrade my Honda Civic.'

Over dinner that night, Mr Chan shared his plan with his parents and
asked them if they would like to pool in their money.

He said: 'My father told me, no risk, no gain.' Two days later, the
senior Mr Chan transferred $300,000, his whole life savings, to his
son's bank account.

Flushed with cash, Mr Chan was able to open trading accounts with
three stockbroking firms. He was so focused on his new
'responsibility' that he 'ate, slept and breathed stocks'.

From analysing companies' chart patterns to buying stocks after a
fall, Mr Chan traded shares of up to six companies at one go.

'I thought I was so smart to diversify... you know what they say,
never put all your eggs into one basket,' he said.

But when he registered the first negative return, Mr Chan 'freaked out'.

'I felt it should not have happened because people were making money.'

The $28,000 loss was just the beginning of his nightmare. He said: 'I
lost control. I could not afford to lose the money. My family does not
belong to the high-income strata.'

His confidence level dipped further when he kept picking 'the bad eggs'.

As his stocks dipped further, he started to panic and began to ask his
friends for loans.

To help him, his girlfriend applied for four bank overdraft facilities
and even maxed the limit on five credit cards.

She was the only one who knew the true extent of his losses.

Mr Chan said: 'I couldn't tell my parents. But my girlfriend was there
for me... until she could not take it anymore.

He covered his face for some seconds and said quietly: 'I've let her
down. Really.'

In his bid to win his girlfriend and his money back, Mr Chan said he
stopped trading for about two weeks, but continued to monitor the charts.

Hoping to recover some of his earlier losses, he set his sight on the
stocks of nine companies when the market re-opened after the Chinese
New Year.

But Mr Chan ended up suffering $100,000 in paper losses and $220,000
in contra trading.

He said: 'I went in for the kill, only to find I could barely stay
alive less than five trading days later. My loved ones may now have to
'die together' with me.'

He added: 'I don't even know if I have the money to return to the
university for my convocation end of this month. I can't bring myself
to think of what's next.'

JSX PORTFOLIO -8th march 07- Nickel Holding

ANTM CLOSE NEAR ALL TIME HIGH.... HUGE SUPPORT AT 9500 and 9550
INCO BREAK ALL TIME HIGH, NICKEL PRICE ALL TIME HIGH!!!!!



Related posting, on ANTM and INCO fundental

http://bonifasius.blogspot.com/2007/03/jsx-portfolio-update-as-of-friday-2nd.html

WELCOME TO TRIPLE DIGIT %-AGE GAIN CLUB!!!

I hereby Proudly Present My brother, Philips and I a warm welcome to Ourself to JOIN the lucrative and Limited,

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A LONG JOURNEY AHEAD... I hope my Intec can beat your BLR bwakakakaka.... anyway... one one of them will be both GOOD FOR OUR PORTFOLIO!!!
NEXT TARGET!! JOIN ---

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I'm overly optimistic at the moment... Please forgive me for that.. ha3x....

I will keep on learning and learning especially to keep the friggin Government from Stealing away OUR hard work!!!
YOSH GANBATTE KUDASAI!!!

WMT- Update 1-Bandarmology!!

I have been trying to remain moderate and conservative on my WMT (western metals)altho i admit that i have done pretty well there.
when i was in class this morning... i was freak out when it was 32c.. what da fuck.... no reserve.. .no drilling SP goes 200%++ in 1 week????... this motherfucker is doomed to die!!!
those greedy trader T+1... they are bleeding now......
what got me thinking is the FORCE behind wmt... there must be a "BANDAR"
since I quite understand Bandarmology,.. the current SP worry bandar as much as it worries me......
so i told to myself.... if I am bandar.. where should i close today to avoid my share being too cheap and also to peg the SP of being too HIGH?
25c... thats what i told myself.. 3hours before market closed..
bwakakakkakakka..... I'm just lucky that i was right.....
Huge sell off with 1 million lot on closing..!! at 25c,.. with another 300k coming as well
BANDARMOLOGY in motion...
BTW: THERE IS A GUY IN OUR FORUM AT CJS (CrazyJim smith forum, http://www.crazyjimsmith.com/)THAT GUESS THE CLOSING CORRECTLY FEW HOURS PRIOR TO CLOSING, "TwinTurboCelica"---- @25c :P

NB: Bandar is from is Malaysian/Indonesian language in which trader refer it to someone/some-institution that has a huge interest and holding in one particular Company.
They are the FORCE to bring the price UP and Down. Since JSX and KLCI are a very volatile market and the transaction is very low as well,.. up to 90% of retailer will lose money in a year with only less than 5% retailer make money in the market.
Its a sadistic land there ha3x.... IMHO
Bandar-mology = the Science that learn about "bandar"-in action. Most veteran in JSX or KLCI will admit that this is what makes the region exchange so much different from other Big Exchange such as ASX or STrait time Index.

Following are WMT on closing today, 5days and 3 months

Market crash is strongly co-related with steel industry over-supply

Ah, well.... today, when early morning was bearish... ha3x, i held myself from giving this comment.
But now, ... seems to be quite different as everyone is bullish!

Today in my lecture, MTE (material science subject)... the lecture was so long as boring like usual. But something suddenly awaken me from my day-dream,....

The lecturer told a story that, currently China is importing lots iron ore and produce steels like a never ending line..... But they cannot possibly produce a high grade and spec steel as Japan, germany and swiss will lead.
China has 10 gigantic steel manufacturers addition at least this to cope with world demand and its 2008 Olympic Games as it builds like hell.
However, afterward.... there will probably over supply of Steel in the market by 2009.2010 and 2011....
he further says,
"THE FALL OF US/WORLD ECONOMY OR MARKET IS ALWAYS CLOSELY CO-RELATED WITH THE STEEL INDUSTRY"

i was thinking afterward,.... well, he talks about market collapse only from one perspective. What got me thinking was US great depression on 1929, the largest steel manufacturer was ailing at the time..... !!

And to be honest, I myself expect something BIG BIG correction in the market in 5-8 years time to be as big as Great Depression. People are talking Nuke war,... World war 3, or USD depreciation,..or any other issue.
Not relevant in near future, but any veterans that i talked to... seems to worry more on how can they protect their capital from great depression if it happens? definitely not property or share market... not even CASH will help!!!

Peter-Lim's indicator

Peter Lim post this graph as indicator of when to in and out of market. very interesting!!, altho i have no clue what is ADX!
wil look forward to research more on it.

KenZ wif Elzye... mantan bini tersayang...-update2-

KenZ wif Elzye... mantan bini tersayang...

poem update

---

JSX-Portfolio Update-as of Friday 2nd March

ANTM CLOSE NEAR ALL TIME HIGH.... HUGE SUPPORT AT 9500 and 9550
INCO BREAK ALL TIME HIGH, NICKEL PRICE ALL TIME HIGH!!!!!



Nickel Portfolio, ANTM (ANTAM, aneka tambang) & INCO
ANTM-Aneka Tambang Indonesia.
Bought 3 lots @RP. 7700/share. 1 Lot =500 shares.
-Current price 9450/share-
GAIN -1750/share- 23% as of Friday 2nd March
Antam is mining Ferronickel and Gold.
Conservative target price of 13000 by end 07, expect 15000+++ by end of year.
Profit as of Q3 2006 is 880billion rupiah, and Full year unauditted profit of 1.56Trilion rupiah.
TO BE NOTED. that the last quarter (Q4 07), on the back of strong nickel price the profit is nearly 700billion rupiah. compare to only 880 billion for the whole 3 other quarter.
Taking that the price of nickel and GOLD has just gone up since end of 2006,.. while nickel spot price was flying high and its 3 months future has hit USD 40k/metric tonnes.
Assuming that Nickel price until mid year will stay as high as Q4 2007 ONLY... ANTM half year profit can get to 700billion*2 =1.4 billion( 3months Future is 40k/metric tonnes). Talking about conservative estimation that there is no production increase until end of year.... then by end 2007 can get to AT LEAST 2.8TRILLION rupiah OR
80% HIGHER...
NB: Ferronickel production will up by at least 20% as FENI III will start its full production and deliver in 2007.
-ANTAM power generation is from OIL generator,which mean that the production cost will relate very closely to the price of oil.
However, Doubling profit on 2007 full year is NOT IMPOSSIBLE!!!!!
May stock split if price get to 10.000/share



INCO-International Nickel Indonesia. BOUGHT 1 lot @34000/share.
-currently price 39100/share-
GAIN of 15% up to date
Target price 60.000/share conservative. expect 80k-100k-may do stock split.
expect follow antm result if not better as its pure NICKEL player in the market.
Share price touched 44000/share and for no strong reason fall back to 39000 now.
Power generation is from water dam.. Expect production to pick up.
Wary over El-nino dry season May 07.

Coziron (CZR.ax) update-1

Posted: Mon Feb 12, 2007 1:56 am Post subject: Coziron Resources Limited(CZR)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Listing on 29th Aug 07
Mining in Various sites in Indonesia

ONLY 25.8million shares on issue. at current SP,
the market cap is only 17 million.
Still holding.... very good prospectus... i will patiently wait till this fruitful. Cant belive this company is valued only 17million....
Time will tell....

A deal with CKI ( major iron ore importer from China, hold 5% CZR)
Highly prospective projects
Project:

Rawang gadang Iron ore
approx 150k tons of iron ore, 64-89.95% content of Fe
Expect early production for company cashflow
Analytical test results expected soon

Kunyit Iron ore

expect up to 66.30% iron ore content
Commence drilling (7th Feb 07 announcement)
Potential low cost deposit for short to medium term period
Expecting start production by April 07; pending Environment department approval.
Announcement UPDATE: Hit 32m Hematite iron ore high grade , huge iron ore reserve...

Lubuk rawang Gadang Lead Zinc\
HIstoric sampling of 30.6% zn, 0.23% Pb.
and, 8%Zn, 5.5%Pb, 312g/t ag 1.84g/t Au
Pending mining licence, expect mid March, no work yet done

Inderapura Coal project
JV with Grange resource Ltd to spend up to 1million dollar for next 18 months to earn 50% shares( due dilligence and test work)

Singkarak Copper and Gold MOU with PT. Intan Borneo
Au Samples peaked at 7.33g/t, Cu up to 22% (very high cu content)

the share price quadruple since the Listing.
Latest closing 68c

Gud news keep coming, but share priced somewhat keep going south... and 17million dollars for all those project!!!!!!!!!!!!,... I guess i'll wait for the drilling application to be approved by mid March to mid April 07 ..... Time will valuate this stock to its fair falue....
as of only 25million shares on issue, this can go higher in a blip on eye...

Graph and Posting are copied from post at Crazy Jim Smith Forum.

Market as of early March 07

Late february, shanghai's flu bring dow jones to its knee.... and on friday closing,.. dow jones closed very close to its week low.
Nobody can tell what will happen to the portfolio by next monday...
A good bargain of small cap at ASX may be interesting, as off i hope to get a bargain on WMT and RBM that still have a huge upside potential. ah, I kept telling myself to remain humble that getting out of Wednesday with green portfolio when ASX closed at -156,... i should not be greedy or proud....
Yes, opportunity will not come twice, BUT DISSASTER WILL NOT COME ONCE ONLY...!!!!

Hope a better strategic movement on Monday later.