Wednesday, March 07, 2007

Market crash is strongly co-related with steel industry over-supply

Ah, well.... today, when early morning was bearish... ha3x, i held myself from giving this comment.
But now, ... seems to be quite different as everyone is bullish!

Today in my lecture, MTE (material science subject)... the lecture was so long as boring like usual. But something suddenly awaken me from my day-dream,....

The lecturer told a story that, currently China is importing lots iron ore and produce steels like a never ending line..... But they cannot possibly produce a high grade and spec steel as Japan, germany and swiss will lead.
China has 10 gigantic steel manufacturers addition at least this to cope with world demand and its 2008 Olympic Games as it builds like hell.
However, afterward.... there will probably over supply of Steel in the market by 2009.2010 and 2011....
he further says,
"THE FALL OF US/WORLD ECONOMY OR MARKET IS ALWAYS CLOSELY CO-RELATED WITH THE STEEL INDUSTRY"

i was thinking afterward,.... well, he talks about market collapse only from one perspective. What got me thinking was US great depression on 1929, the largest steel manufacturer was ailing at the time..... !!

And to be honest, I myself expect something BIG BIG correction in the market in 5-8 years time to be as big as Great Depression. People are talking Nuke war,... World war 3, or USD depreciation,..or any other issue.
Not relevant in near future, but any veterans that i talked to... seems to worry more on how can they protect their capital from great depression if it happens? definitely not property or share market... not even CASH will help!!!

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